The latest numbers from CMHC confirm what many in the industry have been sensing: new home construction is losing steam, and the consequences will be felt right here in Ottawa.
What the Numbers Say
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its January 2026 housing starts data on February 16th, and the headline figure is impossible to ignore.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of housing starts fell 15% in January, coming in at 238,049 units compared to 280,668 units in December. While month-to-month starts data can be volatile, the agency's six-month moving average also showed a 3.5% decline, marking the fourth consecutive monthly drop in that trend measure.
CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa noted that the agency expects new construction to continue trending lower, with trade and geopolitical uncertainty, high construction costs, weaker demand, and rising inventories all constraining developer activity — and that a near-term turnaround is unlikely.
The drivers behind the slowdown are layered: lower immigration numbers and economic uncertainty over changing U.S. trade policy are both contributing to the pullback. To put the gap in perspective, Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned on doubling housing construction to 500,000 homes a year over a decade — but the previous record high was only around 260,000 in the mid-1970s.
Ruby's Take
Here's the hard truth: fewer housing starts today means fewer homes available to buyers 18 to 24 months from now. In a market like Ottawa, where we're already navigating constrained supply and shifting buyer sentiment, this pipeline slowdown is a significant concern. If construction slows nationally and locally, the inventory relief that many buyers have been waiting for may not materialize in the way they hoped — and that creates upward pressure on prices for resale homes, particularly in the affordable and mid-range segments where demand remains strongest.
For sellers, this is a quiet signal worth noting: if you've been on the fence about listing because you feel the market isn't "hot enough," the underlying supply story actually continues to work in your favour. For buyers, especially first-timers, the message is not to panic — but to get educated and be ready to move when the right opportunity comes. The market rewards those who are prepared. If you'd like to understand exactly how this national trend is playing out street by street in Ottawa, that's exactly the kind of conversation I'm here for.
About the Author
Ruby Xue is the founder of Keller Williams ICON Realty and one of Ottawa's most respected real estate leaders. Her journey began as an international student at Carleton University, and since launching her career in 2014, she has been driven by a mission to elevate the standard of professionalism in the industry. Ruby's approach is built on empowering her clients and community with expert guidance, market insight, and a commitment to building businesses worth owning and lives worth living.
Sourced from CTV News Business/Real Estate: https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/real-estate/article/cmhc-reports-january-housing-starts-down-15-per-cent-from-december/
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